Tree Survival Count Guidelines for TerraFund Projects

Introduction 

With 65% of its land degraded, Africa offers the biggest opportunity for restoration in the world. Due to this, 34 African nations have committed to restoring 129.5 million hectares through AFR100. Thousands of local organizations – civil society organizations, small enterprises, and cooperatives are stepping up to help countries achieve that ambitious commitment. However, limited implementation funding to these local groups remains a significant challenge.   

To close that gap, World Resources Institute (WRI), One Tree Planted (OTP), and Realize Impact (RI) established TerraFund for AFR100 in September 2021. TerraFund for AFR100 is a patient capital fund to support non-profit community organizations and for-profit businesses that restore land by growing trees.  

To fulfil TerraFund’s goal of catalyzing successful restoration projects across Africa, proper Forest Management Practices must be applied to ensure the growth and sustainability of planted seedlings. Funded projects must adhere to and use the following guidelines to assess or evaluate and record the survival of planted seedlings. 

Objective: Support TerraFund restoration champions with simplified technical methods of assessing/evaluating the survival rate of planted tree seedlings to increase transparency and consistency across the portfolio. 

Note: This policy applies to planted seedlings, not naturally regenerated trees. 

  1. Purpose of Tree Survival Assessment
    1. Survival rate thresholds
    2. Survival assessment procedure
  2. How to Calculate Survival Count Ratio
  3. Reporting Tree Replacement Numbers for TerraFund Projects
    1. How to report the “number of trees planted” if you have replaced dead seedlings? 
    2. What is the window where dead seedlings would count against survival count?  

1.1 Purpose of Tree Survival Assessment 

  • Survival count is assessing the existence and growth performance of planted seedlings in the field. Trees are planted for numerous reasons (soil protection, restoration of degraded lands, climate regulation, logging for construction material, home usage as firewood, etc.). Whatever the reason for planting, site managers expect high survival rates to compensate for the significant investment made in planting.  
  • Assessing/measuring survival rate early in the project life cycle can help a restoration champion intervene if survival is low to achieve the desired size, density, and quality of planted seedlings. Trees can die because of the inferior quality of seedlings planted, poor seedling handling, lack of favorable weather and soil conditions, damage to seedlings during transport and lack of technical capacity.  
  • Assessing survival of seedlings helps to identify factors that led to the death of seedlings and inform plans to either “beat up” failing areas or replace dead seedlings.  
  • Different organizations or people carry out survival assessment for different purposes. The purpose for TerraFund survival count is as follows: 
  • To track the health and wellbeing of seedlings in a specific area over time and determine whether planting was successful. 
  • To help TerraFund restoration champions determine whether replacement planting or “beating up” is necessary, which is recommended to be completed immediately after planting, no more than 2-4 weeks depending on the species.1
  • To give TerraFund project manager the opportunity to take a closer look at on-the-ground accomplishments to improve the quality of planting material and other factors contributing to the survival of trees. 
  • To provide feedback to the restoration champions on what and how to plant, including quality of seedlings, time of planting and planting technique. 
  • To identify problems with different tree species or other factors related to tree planting to improve planting success and survival. 
  • To inform the decision whether further disbursement of the financial installments can proceed 

1.2 Survival Rate Thresholds 

  • A survival rate above 80% indicates healthy performance of planted seedlings, and the project can focus on protection and other management operations to improve growth.  
  • A survival rate below 80% informs that there is likely a need for beating up or replacement of dead seedlings.  
  • For TerraFund projects, the minimum acceptable survival count is 70%, due to the severe climatic conditions in some of the countries under the program.  
  • A survival rate below 70% requires approval from the restoration champion’s assigned project manager. 
  • Note: Survival and tree growth vary depending on tree species’ response to environment, light, rain, shade, and other factors. Thus, it is advised to conduct a thorough assessment of which species to select and where to plant them to maximize survival. 

1.3 Survival Assessment Procedure 

When to conduct tree survival assessment? 

  • Because TerraFund finances champions in different countries and regions that experience seasons differently, all projects must conduct a survival assessment in advance of submitting either their July or January progress reports on TerraMatch.  
  • If submitting in the July report, they should conduct the assessment between April and June.  
  • If submitting in the January report, they should conduct the assessment between October and December.  
  • While champions are required to conduct survival assessment once per year, they are strongly encouraged to assess the survival twice during the project’s first year, preferably at 3 months and then 6 months after planting seedlings. Even more frequent assessment, while not required for reporting, is encouraged throughout the project's lifetime. 

What to prepare 

A restoration champion’s staff member who is assigned to conduct a survival assessment must prepare: 

  • A recording tool: a recording form, a pen, or an electronic tool (phone, tablet, computer). Choose the appropriate tool according to the terrain's nature.  
  • A rope or tape measure 
  • Tree tags or markers (optional for individual tree identification). 
  • Compass (optional for orientation). 
  • Pruning shears or hatchet (for removing competing vegetation, if necessary). 

How to conduct survival assessment

Survival is difficult to measure by simply looking at the planting site. It is not possible, or it is time consuming to see, assess and count every single seedling in a planting site. There are different methodologies for survival count. 

Only visibly planted seedlings should be included in the survival assessment; mature trees on the site should not be counted. 

  • Census: For a small area less than 0.5 hectares, the best way is a census count, where you assess whether every planted seedling has survived or not. 
  • Sampling: If your project area is too large to count all the planted seedlings individually (above 0.5 hectares), use a systematic sampling methodology to select the areas to conduct the count. 
  • Divide the area into smaller plots or transects and sample representative sections of the site. Ensure that the sampling design is random or stratified to minimize bias, especially when the planting site has greater inhomogeneity in various aspects. 
  • Mark every sample plot with a visible marker, e.g., colored metal bar, to denote the area where you will assess survival rate. 
  • Ensure that sample plots selected are an accurate representation of the project’s target land use systems (separation of restoration intervention types), e.g., agroforest, natural forest, and planting arrangement e.g., planting with rows and without rows.  
  • Ex: If the project is 80% agroforest and 20% natural forest, 80% of the sample plots should be in agroforest zones. 
  • Ex: If 80% of a project’s area is planted in rows and 20% not planted in rows, 80% of the sample plots should be in areas planted in rows. 
  • Read TerraFund’s recommendations for creating simple sample plots in each scenario below. 

Method for Natural Forest, Riparian Area, Woodlot/Plantation, Urban Forest  

  1. Survival assessment for plantation with rows  
  2. For areas under 0.5 hectares, count all trees in the area (census). 
  3. For areas more than 0.5 hectares, sample every 10th row. Select randomly an edge to start from and count until the end of the row and repeat to every 10th row until you have covered the area. 
  4. Count each seedling, record the species, and note whether the seedling is alive, dead, or missing. Identify possible causes for death or damage. 
  5. Survival assessment for plantation without rows (no defined layout) 
  6. For areas under 0.5 hectares, count all planted seedlings in the area (census). 
  7. For areas more than 0.5 hectares, count all the planted seedlings within randomly distributed circular sample plots.  
  8. If advice is needed to create sample plots, the TerraFund project manager can provide advice. 
  9. In total, these plots must contain at least 10% of planted seedlings in the area.  
  10. TerraFund recommend plots of 10m2 with a 3.14m (but variation is possible).  
  11. Count each tree, record the species, and note whether the seedling is alive, dead, or missing. Identify possible causes for death or damage. 

Method for Agroforest, Silvopasture 

  • TerraFund champions are implementing agroforestry work with hundreds to thousands of farmers, making it impractical to visit every farmer and measure the survival of every tree. 
  • In this case, the champion conducts survival assessment on the land of a random sample of at least 30% of the beneficiaries where the project’s seedlings were planted.  
  • We highly encourage champions to sample on the land of more than 30% of farmers, if desired. 
  • Ex: If a champion engaged 100 farmers for this project, they count seedlings on 30 farmers’ land.  
  • The champion can select farmers using any randomization technique that they see fit. 
  • By individual farmer:  
  • The champion can use a spreadsheet or paper record and list out the names of each farmer in alphabetical order, regardless of the number of trees they planted or hectares.  
  • Then, the champion randomly selects every third farmer regardless of the number of seedlings they planted or hectares. 
  • On each farmer’s land, count each tree, record the species, and note whether the seedling is alive, dead, or missing. Identify possible causes for death or damage. 
  • For all further survival assessments, the champion should revisit the same farmers to ensure that the data collected is comparable over time. 

2.1 How to calculate the survival count ratio 

Survival rate is the percentage of living seedlings at the time of data collection, divided by the total number of seedlings planted. 

SR = NLS / NTS * 100  

Where: SR: Survival Rate; NLS: Number of Living Seedlings and NTS: Number of Total Planted Seedlings.  

This figure is uploaded to TerraMatch as part of the six-month progress report, in addition to any supporting documentation that the champion used to arrive at this figure. Champions are highly encouraged to submit as much supporting documentation as possible. 

Source: Survival Count Guideline, Regreening Africa, June 2020. Page 8; Measuring Survival and Planting Quality in New Pine Plantations Dr Andrew J.Londo & Dr stephen G. Dicke, Southern Regional Extension Forestry, January 2006.   

Note: The tree survival evaluation should be done and reported at each site in all TerraFund Projects. 

3.1 Reporting Tree Replacement Numbers for TerraFund Projects 

What is tree seedling replacement? 

Seedling "replacement” can be defined as a process of replacing newly planted seedlings   that have died or failed to survive due to different factors such as disease, poor soil conditions, drought or other natural disaster, pests, poor seedling stock or seedling damage during the transportation and planting process. Replacement ensures that the initial targeted planting stock is regained.  

There are two types of replacement:  

  • The process of filling the spaces occupied by trees/seedlings which have died is commonly known as “beating up" the plantation (W.L. Taylor, 1943) This is a standard practice and typically occurs within the first month(s) after planting. 
  • Replanting,” also referred to as reforestation, involves planting seedling over an area of land where a major disturbance has led to the death of majority of seedlings, trees, e.g., damaged by fire, disease, natural disaster or human activity e.g. when trees were harvested (H. Gyde Lund, 1999). 

3.2 On TerraMatch, how should a champion report the “number of trees planted” if they have replaced dead seedlings?  

  1. Replacement Within the Reporting Cycle 

When a seedling is planted, dies, and is replaced within the six-month reporting period on TerraMatch, champions should report the original number of seedlings planted in their site report. Champions should not count replacement seedlings as additional trees planted to avoid double counting. 
 
Here is an example:  

  • During the first season of planting on Site A, the champion planted 100,000 seedlings, and within 3 weeks, 100 seedlings died.  
  • The team replaced the dead 100 seedlings with an additional 100 seedlings within the TerraMatch reporting cycle and after planting. 
  • The champion should then report in their six-month report for Site A on TerraMatch that they have planted 100,000 seedlings, not 100,100 seedings.  

2. Replacement After the Reporting Cycle 

If seedlings are replaced after the reporting cycle in which they were originally plantedg, champions should report the seedling replacement in the next six-month TerraMatch site report following these steps: 

  • Trees that are replaced must be reported on the correct site where they were replaced. 
  • In that section of the site report form, champions should: 
  • Report the number and species of trees replaced in the relevant field on TerraMatch. The species remains the same as previously planted unless the change has been approved by the project manager. 
  • Include only the replaced trees there. If 100 were dead, and 100 seedlings were planted as replacements, “100” should be reported.  
  • Report the date of when seedlings were replaced in MM/DD/YYYY format. 

3.3. What is the window where dead seedlings would count against survival count?  

On each site, TerraFund requires restoration champions to report the numbers of trees planted every six months and the survival rate of those trees. This information is used to complement remotely sensed monitoring of tree growth. Champions follow the survival calculation guidelines in this document when implementing a survival count and fill out the recording sheet. 

If replaced within the reporting cycle where planting also occurred, the replaced trees should not count as “dead trees” when reporting on TerraMatch. In all subsequent reports, replaced trees that die should be included in the survival rate calculation, and they should be marked as “replacement” trees in the recording sheet. It is strongly recommended that champions conduct several survival rate tallies throughout the project lifespan, starting as early as one month after planting. 

Conclusion 

Tree planting involves considerable investments in money and time. In trying to achieve our target to restore degraded lands, we must always ensure our planting targets are achieved by going back to the fields we planted, assess the establishment and survival rates and make early adjustments to improve our plantation’s (restoration) performance. 

 

Template for survival rate calculation is attached below.

 

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